The Bulwark Daily

While the cult of Trump is dragging Republicans' popularity down, the Democrats have good, ideologically diverse candidates running all over the place. And voters aren't stupid: They know Trump's war and his tariffs are why prices are higher. But high-profile polling misses in recent years still haunt Dems, so Adam takes a deep dive into whether Republicans are doing better than the polls are showing.

The king of the birther conspiracy knows he needs to round up the white male vote, so he's serving up one of his old faves—straight-up anti-Muslim bigotry. And he's added a new one: Making Americans pay for another political ad, this time about what a tough guy he is. But Trump also has another corruption problem, courtesy of Trump Jr.'s ex-fiancée, Amb. Kimberly Guilfoyle, who seems to have a habit of calling in very expensive favors.

Florida's Democratic nominee for the Senate says average Americans right now are living in the dreams of oligarchs and the super-rich, and it's time for regular people to live their own dreams. The progressive maverick promises to fight to help all Floridians—regardless of party—to be healthy, prosperous, and safe. And while Republicans like to point out Nixon's DSA affiliation, the Trump administration itself is acting socialist, while also sending immigrants back to countries like Cuba and Venezuela.

Destroying trust in the government is one of Trump's key sources of power, but Michael reports from the front lines of the deep state that there still are good employees serving the public interest. In his new book, Michael celebrates some of the heroes who either managed to survive DOGE—or were stupidly pushed out despite the vital roles they filled. And the absolute failures of DOGE raise serious questions about how Elon could be trusted to run any enterprise.

Like all good demagogues, Trump's appeal works when he's got someone to blame. But it's on his watch that we've got a war-related global food crisis brewing and mass layoffs in Ohio—where Trump just happened to hold a rally over the weekend. So, POTUS is focused on getting his family more money through a new bribery scheme while Republicans struggle to demonize Dems and throw away resources on Paxton.

What is going on with Trump's legs? He appears to be wearing a brace and a recent video shows him standing in a most unnatural way—as though he is mid-exorcism. But his apparent health issues don't seem to be stopping the administration from re-escalating against Iran with an additional 10,000 troops on their way to the region. Meanwhile, Trump's son-in-law, Jared (AKA the point person on the Gaza peace deal) turns out to be a war profiteer heavily invested in Israeli bomb-making companies.

Finally, some accountability in Washington: Sen. Eric Schmitt’s general counsel and poster-holder is in career limbo after the infamous basketball mix-up in the Jack Smith hearing. And Americans seem to be holding Trump responsible for their economic frustrations—he’s below the Bush Line. Josh Barro explains: We’re not in a recession, but people feel stuck because borrowing costs are higher. Big budget deficits are inflationary, the president’s war of choice is making things worse, and our leaders don’t have a plan to deal with any of it.

The Trio comes together on the daily pod for the first time to give a little taste of the MAGA-land news Sam, Will, and Tim are covering for The Bulwark. The latest developments include speculation that Candace Owens may be a lesbian and that Florida gubernatorial candidate Byron Donalds pretended he was Jamaican. He may also have very poor judgment on financial matters. But first, Maria talks with Tim about Eric Schmitt and what may be the biggest self-own in the history of the Senate.

Vigilance is still in order, but Trump’s efforts to rig the midterms have so far flopped. And that includes Trump’s self-sabotaging of his own plan to blame China for hacking our voting machines. But should the Dems win back Congress, they’re going to be busy tracing all the money that was stolen for the ballroom, the arch, and Pentagon contracts with Trump family members.

The Trump administration stole our tax dollars to run a campaign ad during NFL games on Sunday. They're also breaking the law on congressional funding appropriations—and enjoying rubbing the public's face in all the illegality they're getting away with. In Dayton, The Bulwark had its largest live show ever, and the community came through in a huge way with donations for Haitian immigrants in Springfield. For a taste of the event, we're sharing Tim's interview with Democratic strategist Patrick Gaspard.

Trump pulled out all the stops at the state dinner to regale the guy who is working with our enemy: Not only has China been helping Iran target and kill American soldiers, it's also been shipping Tehran component parts for drones and missile guidance systems. Senate Republicans, of course, blocked an effort to end the war as one of their last votes before the midterms. Meanwhile, election deniers keep showing us that they're going to try to monkey around with the election results in November.

First, Sam Stein sits down with Tim to discuss the latest humiliation of our troops: Trump’s red carpet welcome for President Xi. Plus: the White House’s insane propaganda machine, a new Maine poll throws some cold water on the midterms hopium, Sen. Tommy Tuberville’s obsession with furries, and is RFK Jr. running for president? Then, Tim pulls back the curtain on his interview with Mary Peltola, which wrapped just hours before a new critical New York Times piece dropped.

The cozy White House Correspondents' Dinner, where Trump joked around with reporters, was only in July. But now he's ripping away press credentials and setting up state-run media. Sarah scolds the WHCA for bending the knee to Trump to begin with. And recent Italian history even foreshadowed the Trump era. Jason, in his new book, explains how Silvio Berlusconi learned how to become the central character in the media. The more he was talked about, the more powerful he became—and the more his opposition became trapped.

The party has been busy playing defense in Trump states, and now comes the news that Susan Collins is corrupt on top of being a loyal MAGA supplicant. More Democrats should walk with Ossoff's swagger and keep their message simple: attack Trump on his corruption and the war. (And in colder climes, the price of heating oil.) Meanwhile, subpoenas over Trump Jr.'s Russian mobster-funded wedding are coming, and even some Republicans are likely to get on board.

As Trump’s war of choice continues to expand in the Middle East, it’s clear that the president is desperate not to show how weak he really is. The administration is out of time and out of both strategic and rhetorical options in Iran. Another sign that he is flailing: Trump is trying to ban CNN, MS NOW, and Politico from the White House press pool. But other TV outlets are pushing back in solidarity, forcing Trump to choose between two of his favorite things: punishing his critics and dominating the airwaves.

In Greenland, the Trump administration has got tech bros and hedge fund guys running an influence operation there. The aim may be to fulfill Trump's territorial ambitions—or to create a sovereign state run by CEOs. In Venezuela, the administration is imperialistically seizing its gold, oil and other assets with no oversight. And in Brazil, the White House is trying to bring the Bolsonaro family back to power—which may or may not have something to do with Elon being angry about the country's tech regulation laws. In Trump 2.0, informal envoys, private companies, and hardened ideologues are turning American diplomacy upside down.

Republicans are reeling, the vibes are shifting, and the wave is building. Jesse serves up a particularly optimistic view of the Democrats' chances in the midterms, with even stretch districts now in play. And ahead of Saturday's Ole Miss-LSU game, Wright shares how Mississippians are responding to the gutting of the Voting Rights Act and says that conservative farmers in the state are turning on MAGA.

The Fed raised interest rates to curb inflation, as expected, but mortgage rates are surging and flailing Scott Bessent remains the treasury secretary. Meanwhile, the alarm raised in the AI community is not an op despite the backlash from people like Nvidia's Jensen Huang, who seems to get everything he wants from Donald Trump.

The co-author of the signature book inside Trump 2.0 says the media only knows 5% of what is happening inside the administration—particularly when it comes to national security, the money-making, and the self-dealing. Jonathan does have new reporting about how the administration keeps pretending that our military is not running low on long-range missiles. In reality, the war is costing us a month's worth of Patriots almost every day.

A Putin bestie who's involved with the kidnapping of Ukrainian children bankrolled Don Jr.'s island wedding for some mysterious reason. Kushner is calling on Ukraine to give in to Putin's territorial demands. And Trump himself is blaming Zelensky for the high cost of diesel even though prices shot up after Trump launched his war of choice. It's the whole Trump family that tends to remind us of their close ties to Russia, Russia, Russia. Meanwhile, POTUS is not troubled by China's involvement with the death of U.S. soldiers in the Mideast.

Rudy Giuliani and others who purport to represent the families of 9/11 victims ginned up the idea that it would be wrong for the Muslim mayor of NYC to attend Friday's memorial at ground zero. Republican politicians and Laura Loomer keep pushing their trash Islamification conspiracy. And a law-abiding Muslim family has been imprisoned for five months because Rubio declared them a national security threat—and most of the media could care less. At the same time, Tucker has a new, large Muslim fan base because they like what he's saying about Gaza and the Palestinians, even though he's a solid anti-Muslim bigot who just hates the Jews more right now.

As Sarah explains in her new book, Trump has been so successful teaching a new generation of Republicans about the political value of vice signaling that Nazi talk and racism has become the norm among young MAGA edgelords. Disdain for women is also a key element. One former true believer, Pedro, says the right sees all of Trump's corruption and abuse of power as justified because he's focused on the country's true enemies: brown people, immigrants, and their white allies. And Vance buddying up to the racists shows that he is the real heir apparent to Trump.

With Republicans in tight races stripping Trump’s name off their campaign websites, the president is in need of some love from Republicans he has summoned to Dallas to celebrate him. The fake convention also conveniently serves as a distraction from the surging price of oil. Plus: Vance may be the source who’s leaking about the missile depletions, Fox is giving more leeway for criticism of Trump, anti-Muslim hysteria is driving the complaints about Mamdani attending the 9/11 memorial in NYC, and Jessica from “The Five” has what she’s calling a “survival manual” for how to talk about politics with your MAGA friends and family members.

From politics to sports, business, and tech, the rich are breaking the rules, looking out for their friends, and still getting rewarded in the end—maybe with the help of a little trip to the White House with a POTUS gift in hand. For the midterms and beyond, Adam is bullish in his new book about the Dems' prospects to win on a grand scale and pass the kind of policies that help regular people. Part of the trick is cooling it on the purity tests over fraught issues like Israel. And in this Trump era, when accountability is so scarce, Pablo shows with his Pulitzer-winning reporting on the LA Clippers that consequences are still possible.

With just under two months until Election Day, Tim and Bill revisit the run-up to the midterms in 2006 and 1994, two major wave election cycles where the bottom just fell out from under the party in power. The 1994 blowout was more about the end of an era, while 2006 was about an unpopular war in the Middle East, a scandal, and a disappointed base. What do those wave elections suggest about the prospects for a big blue year in 2026?

Marco Rubio is using dubious powers to create a new class of immigrant political prisoners. Meanwhile, DHS officials are bragging about how they're brutally shackling and frog-marching Haitians who came here under protected status. On this American holiday weekend, David takes a "nerd moment" to explain that the Founders always intended our Constitutional liberties to apply to noncitizens as well—including even despicable Milo Yiannopoulos.

Thom Tillis was the pivotal vote to confirm a buffoon to run the Department of Defense, and now he’s shocked about Hegseth’s incompetency. JD wants everyone to know he’s a Catholic now, but he doesn’t seem to have absorbed even the basic teachings of Catholicism. And Susan Collins claims she has influence with her Senate colleagues over Trump’s agenda—even though on almost every occasion she has made sure that her vote won’t matter.

The Army is currently operating without any Senate-confirmed civilian or military leaders at the top. For Navy secretary, Trump is nominating an election-denying veteran who thinks witches and wiccans are taking over cities. And when Hegseth is not busy purging the DOD’s leadership, he seems to be under the spell of a Rasputin-like character who failed a polygraph and may have taken the supposedly sober defense secretary out for a bender.

Vaccine skepticism and distrust of pharmaceutical companies long predated RFK, Jr.'s 2024 presidential campaign. But the distrust of mainstream medical authority has now grown so deep that the United States can no longer contain the spread of measles. The country’s measles-vaccination rates have dropped below the threshold for herd immunity. Obviously, Trump’s misleading vax ruminations from the Oval Office have not helped the matter. The New Yorker’s Ruby Cramer discusses her reporting on one family’s frightening medical experience after one parent fell down the MAHA rabbit hole.

Trump’s war is far from over, top military leaders are warning Hegseth that prolonged ops in the region are unsustainable, and Americans have been financing Pentagon propagandists who’ve been secretly collecting taxpayer money to try to convince us that things are going great in Iran. This is not the time for congressional Democrats to allow Republicans to easily pass a spending resolution that keeps the government open. At the same time, Trump keeps handing gifts to Democrats—like his sell-out to tech oligarchs and his praise of data centers.

The wars in Iran and Ukraine are increasingly entangled, CIA Director John Ratcliffe had to personally deliver a message to Moscow, and Trump is driving our Gulf allies into the arms of China. Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israel relationship keeps mucking up our domestic politics, particularly in Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign in Michigan. But it also turns out that podcast host (and senator) Ted Cruz seems to be pocketing money from the state of Israel itself.

We’ve hit the August doldrums, so Tim is taking the daily pod on a little excursion. The Bulwark community delivered some epic mailbag questions, one of which prompted Sam to make one of the nerdiest confessions ever. Also, Tim and Sam adjust their Cabinet member rankings: Marco is an utter catastrophe, RFK Jr. is failing on all fronts, and Kelly Loeffler is proof that aliens exist.

The only likely way to end the nightmare of Trump—and Republicans supporting him no matter how much he ruins the country—is for Democrats to win in Republican-leaning states and congressional districts. That means giving moderates the grace to compete for people who voted for Trump. Likewise, moderates also need to recognize that the left will be swing voters in key races this election cycle.

Yield curve control has gone mainstream (seriously, just ask the Asheville Beatnik with a message for Scott Bessent), so Tracy Alloway is here to explain the latest economic turmoil to Tim. Bessent’s bond buyback gambit seems to have flopped, but apparently, according to the President, there’s always the option of military intervention to bring the market to heel. In the meantime, consumers are going to pay more interest on everything, and there’s no plan to reduce the federal debt.

Canada flat-out rejected Trump’s terms in trade talks, so now it looks like we are going to have a trade war with our friends in the Great White North. Sorry, Maine. Sorry, bourbon industry. And in MAGA farm country, ranchers are furious that POTUS is increasing beef imports free of tariffs. Even Tom Cotton has dared to question Trump’s move. And on the other side of the aisle, Democrats should maximize their attacks on ICE, the midterms are looking wave-ish, and Hakeem should explain why he would have a conversation with Kushner that did not involve a subpoena.

Melania had to come out of hiding and practice her English after days of embarrassing coverage of Trump aide Natalie Harp. And now Harp’s newly released gushing notes to POTUS show unparalleled devotion to him. But they also hint at an abusive relationship built around trying to manage his easily-wounded ego with fantasy-grade good news stories.

Mark the summer of 2026 as the moment when an unlikely supermajority of Americans came together on one issue: their opposition to data centers. This new, big, messy coalition spans the political spectrum and is rooted in a fear that the sociopaths of Silicon Valley will determine the future of our lives, our communities, and our economic prospects. And (most) politicians have noticed which way the wind is blowing.

When Trump came back into power, his administration leaned heavily on former CIA analyst Julia Curlee to help safeguard our national security. The first CIA officer to transition openly, Curlee had worked at the highest levels in the White House for years. But once her gender identity became public through a witch hunt, she was hounded out. Curlee talks with Tim about the chaos of Trump’s slash-and-burn firings, the administration’s demonizing of trans people, and how Mike Pence treated her with dignity and respect when she was his personal briefer.

Trump is flailing so badly on Iran. He dispatched Jared Kushner to negotiate with the regime but then denies that any talks are happening at all. He also threatened to bomb one ally and hammered another for not helping him fight his war. And somehow, in all of this, Kushner—a private businessman and a consultant for the Saudis—is meeting with Hamas officials and Netanyahu while also looking out for his own financial interests.

Thanks to a shrewdly-timed Jon Ossoff campaign event, a lot more people are suddenly learning about young and blonde Trump confidante Natalie Harp AKA ‘the human printer’—and one of only three aides who accompanied POTUS on his catering truck-secret flight escape. Meanwhile, Trump is lending a hand to white-collar criminals and expanding his extortion and bribery options with his crypto firm.

When Graham Platner’s campaign was imploding, Republicans made sure to hang him around every Democrat's neck. Now, Democrats need to make Republicans own Rep. Max Miller, the alleged violent domestic abuser. That definitely includes Neverland Ranch fan Mike Lawler.

What a way to run a country: ICE thugs will soon have special gloves that deliver an electric shock to people they’re trying to detain; D.C. residents have to contend with National Guard troops on their streets because the president likes fascist theater; and sailors who’ve been at sea for more than 250 days—for a war that no one understands—are trying to kill themselves by jumping overboard.

Democratic primary voters in Wisconsin didn’t care much for how hard Republicans were working to try to make democratic socialist Francesca Hong the Dems' nominee for governor. That whole strategy helped draw last night’s primary winner, David Crowley, back into the race three weeks ago. Maybe there is not a secret socialist vote in rural America, after all.

Trump may have the pardon power, but all those people making bank off of shady contracts from the administration or doing pay-to-play can lose all that money through forfeiture and seizure laws already on the books. Taxpayers are going to want their money back.

The party is sticking with Max Miller despite the very credible domestic abuse allegations. Not only is this a gift to his Democratic opponent, Brian Poindexter, in that red district in Ohio, it’s also likely to impact the Senate and governor's races there as well. Meanwhile, Tucker and MTG are talking about creating a third party for 2028. And Trump is losing to Iran so badly he can’t even make a coherent argument about the war for his biggest fans.

Tim got his hopes up that Bill Cassidy was going to come out against Blanche as AG. But of course, the senator showed once again that Republicans will do anything to stay on Team Trump—including turning our government into a corrupt, gangster oligarchy. Never mind that ordinary Americans are still dealing with the stink bombs Trump dumped on our economy with his tariffs and failed war: We’ve got lousy job numbers and higher prices across the board.

POTUS has always used lies to great advantage, but his fakery can’t disguise the dangerous reality that the United States is running out of missiles. What a time for Trump to don an SNL-grade wig. Meanwhile, AIPAC may be evolving into a Trump super PAC, Max Miller keeps showing everyone he’s a sociopath, the GOP Islamophobia is looking very 2002, and Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo accidentally admits Trump is looking out for the billionaires.

The polling was way off, but suburban Dem voters in Michigan nonetheless showed that they’re sick of the party establishment and enraged by Trump, the war, the lies, and the corruption. AIPAC didn’t read the room. But party leaders are sounding united behind El-Sayed and Jane predicts he’ll bring a Mamdani-like energy to his campaign against Mike Rogers.

Sam Altman wants a supercomputer to talk to his kid so he doesn’t have to. Elon thinks Grok can make a better Odyssey than Christopher Nolan. And Silicon Valley has been cultishly hyping AI so much that they’ve lost the plot. Regular people are sick of all the synthetic slop, they don’t trust the tech titans, and their opposition to data centers is just the tip of the iceberg of a growing tech backlash.

Both the left and center-left are acting like the other faction within the party is the enemy—and not Donald Trump. Democrats need to keep their eye on the ball: Trump and the corruption, lying, and incompetence across his administration. In the past couple of days, the massive dishonesty has included Doug Burgum’s doubling down on the Reflecting Pool lies and Todd Blanche’s sham document on the IRS and the J6 weaponization fund. And why is Schumer signing off on a deal with Republicans to keep the government open?