Caucus

Major parties try new policies to reconnect with their bases, National re-writes its risk pitch, fiscal frustrations, & what stuck from the first leaders debate. ANALYSIS: What’s a right-leaning voter to do? The past few weeks have seen debates about strategic voting as polls have consistently placed National below 30 percent and a centre-left bloc, Opportunity permitting, more likely to form a government. It means voters wanting to give the existing coalition the best chance of remaining in power are wracking their brains on where to cast their ballot. Stick, twist, or return? And, in turn, that means the strategists in National, New Zealand First, and ACT, are trying to figure out not just how to win the “soft centre” but how to steal from each other. [wk_audio]a6dfa00f-eb36-49ba-8f7d-02a109828beb As deputy political editor Craig McCulloch says in this week’s Caucus episode, National wants to be fishing for voters who will add to the overall centre-right bloc, especially the undecideds (approximately 11%…

The campaigns are launching and it's time to lock into politics New Zealand. Caucus returns to set the scene for Election 2026, discussing why incumbency sucks, strategic voting is controversial, and the minor parties are major players. Election 2026 By Tim Watkin Polls leading into the campaign proper, which kicked off this week with Parliament rising and the two major parties holding their campaign launches, have been filled with headlines about “kingmakers”. Initially, New Zealand First was given the title, as it has been so many times before. But more recently polls have showed the new kid, Opportunity, holding the balance of power. But if we take the parties at face value, “kingmaker” is a word that no longer makes sense in 2026. The fluidity of previous election campaigns, when parties would often refuse to say who they might work with until the people had spoken, has been replaced with coalition calcification. New Zealand First has ruled out a coalition with Labour and Labour has ruled out a coalition…

A mood for change swept National & friends into power, so this season's final Caucus breaks down the numbers, unpacks the swing in Auckland, & looks at the coalition niceties. And the team opens their envelopes to check their predictions. Election 2023 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - Election 2023 is done but certainly not dusted. Our 54th parliament has been chosen and National will lead a coalition government into the new term. But what has the result told us about the state of New Zealand's politics and the strengths and weaknesses of our political parties? The Caucus team meets for one last time for this election to make sense of last weekend's results. What really happened in Auckland as it swung blue? Why is Labour on the verge of losing some bastion seats? And just who is Dan Rosewarne anyway? Julian Wilcox, Tim Watkin, Guyon Espiner and Lisa Owen talk through the big trends of the 2023 elections and what they teach us. They discuss the impact of Covid and where…

Wrapping up Election 2023, there's still plenty to play for ahead of election day. We review the highs and lows of Election 2023, unpack National's 'Winston Strategy', consider the missed opportunities and pick the seats to watch. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - What was National thinking? In Caucus this week, Guyon Espiner, Tim Watkin, Julian Wilcox and Lisa Owen look at National's decision to warn voters of a second election, saying the quiet things out loud and its overall 'Winston strategy'. Why didn't they make a call sooner to wall off New Zealand First and what price changing its position so late in the game? Or will the 'quiet Tory' effect take over in the booth? Which seats are the ones to watch, especially as polls suggest Labour faces a tidal shift from the 2020 'red wave' that have put as many as half their electorate MPs at risk? Which MPs could be saying haere ra? And can the left bloc claw back ground in the final hours? In this bumper final episode before…

Grumpy voters, crimes against candidates, desperate parties, unsophisticated MMP strategies and the return of John Key. As the campaign peaks, so does the tension. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here In Caucus this week, Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner and Tim Watkin look at the angry mood of the campaign. Candidates are suffering unacceptable threats from the public. So why are people so fractious? What impact are Covid, co-governance and the cost of living having on voters or are we being influenced by global trends? Parties and their proxies are also starting to lose their cool - name-calling, making up claims, turning mountains into molehills and trying some desperate pleas. National has turned to John Key to try to persuade voters of the risks of New Zealand First, but the Caucus crew ask which voters they think he can swing. The Opportunities Party's Raf Manji has suggested a deal with National in Ilam. National quickly rejected it, but did National miss a trick months ago…

National's decision to form a government with New Zealand First as "as a last resort" is both a plea and a warning. What might a "cocktail" with ACT and NZF taste like? Could Luxon hold it together? And is NZF a racist party? By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here This week's Caucus looks at Christopher Luxon's landmark call to open the door to forming a government with New Zealand First and ACT. Predecessors John Key and Simon Bridges had ruled out governing with Winston Peters, saying they didn't trust him. Former Prime Minister and coalition partner Jenny Shipley said working with Peters could be "a trainwreck". Yet Luxon has chosen another path, based on the "principle" that New Zealand needs a change of government above all else. Lisa Owen, Guyon Espiner, Julian Wilcox and Tim Watkin discuss the enigma that is Winston Peters, National's options in negotiations, New Zealand First's policies, and what's different this time with New Zealand First. Plus, they examine the week of debates -…

Chris Hipkins needs a new song and dance routine and fast, or he could be doing the limbo and losing the next generation of Labour's leaders. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - Another poll, another 27 for Labour. It was July the last time one of the reputable TV company polls had Labour's poll percentage starting with a three, so the limbo question is now being asked: how low can you go? It seems such an unlikely question because this doesn't feel like the kind of election that delivers a 27 percent major party. Usually parties crumble because of internal dissent, a tanking economy or radical reform. Labour has been cautious in its reforms; many of its supporters say too cautious. The economy's sub-par, but take away the partisan politics and it's pretty clear that's the result of war in Europe, global inflation, China's woes and paying off the costs of a pandemic either major party in government would have accrued. (Before you argue, look at how a National government…

Multiple polls point to a change of government. Is National passing the sniff test? Do voters really want ACT's 'real change' or a handbrake? We ask what a centre-right government might look like. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - David Seymour is usually more a talker than a fighter, an ideas man; but he's been flexing his political muscles during this election campaign. Running as high 13 percent in major media polls this year (and even 18 percent in one Roy Morgan), ACT has been threatening to become the most successful minor party ever under MMP. (New Zealand First got 13.3 percent in 1996, in the first MMP election). But with two polls showing ACT slipping to 10 percent, has the mouse roared too much and is Seymour misreading the mood for change? In this week's Caucus podcast, we look at what the polls are suggesting a change of government may look like. Labour and the Greens are painting the picture of a National-ACT coalition as the most free-market, right-wing…

Should we be worried about the election campaign going negative? Or is the greater worry party leaders who can't get their facts straight? By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - It's been all about the fear and loathing in campaign land this week, with every party accusing another of negativity, lies and the inability to run even the Venezuelan economy. The oft-forgotten subtitle of Hunter S Thompson's famous book, Fear and Loathing in Law Vegas, is "a savage journey to the heart of the American dream", and if you were to believe National's campaign chair Chris Bishop this week, New Zealand had embarked on its own savage journey into democratic chaos. "The most negative election campaign in New Zealand history," he declared on day three of the official campaign period, after a Council of Trade Union (CTU) ad that claimed National's Christopher Luxon was "out of touch" and "too much risk". The Caucus team calls hyperbole on that in this week's podcast. Most campaigns - if not all…

National's tax plan is a clever political document but raises questions about "heroic" numbers. We look at how much government spending doesn't change and what's up for grabs in coalition deals. Plus a quick visit to Ilam and Epsom. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - National's tax plan released this week was one of the big set pieces left in the Election 2023 campaign, even though the campaign hasn't officially started yet. In the past tax plans have spurred and stalled political momentum, sparked debates about fiscal holes, lost voters and maybe even elections. So though we still have six weeks to go to the election, there was a lot riding on Christopher Luxon and Nicola Willis when they talked tax this week. It's the focus of this week's Caucus podcast. National produced a clever and careful political document. As Julian Wilcox says, they made sure they didn't know the ball on five metres from the try line. That was their first job and they got it done. The narrative…

ACT endures scrutiny, Shane Jones impersonates Julie Andrews and we recall 1999, while Lacklustre Luxon and Ho Hum Hipkins fail to inspire. Election 2023 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Analysis - A new 1News Verian poll shows it is an uphill battle for the centre-left bloc, while ACT starts to feel the pressure of wanting to be treated like a big party. Does it risk blowing up like a Guy Fawkes night firework? Chris Hipkins' falling popularity narrows Labour's potential path to victory, while National steps on Pharmac's independence in its rush to make Christopher Luxon appear more caring. This week's episode of Caucus looks back to parallels between this campaign and the 1999 election, while Shane Jones takes to the hills to sing for Northland. The 1News Verian Poll put National at 37 percent, Labour at 29 percent, ACT at 13 percent, the Greens at 12 percent, NZ First at 3.7 percent, Te Pāti Māori at 2.6 percent and TOP 0.6 percent. Guyon Espiner said in order for National to be a…

With little money in the government's coffers heading into Election 2023, the Caucus podcast looks at how the two main parties plan to use fear, frugality and friendliness to win your vote. By Tim Watkin Analysis: Labour's campaign strategy of stinginess has started to take shape, as it rolled out tax and welfare policies this week. Labour's big reveals - taking the GST off fruit and vegetables and increasing in-work tax credits by $25/week in 2024 - also pulled back the curtain on how it hopes to steal the election from National and ACT. While a big fuss was made of the details of the GST policy in particular - and its rejection by tax and health experts - this week's Caucus podcast discussed the politics behind the policy. The design flaws have been well traversed and Finance Minister Grant Robertson's discomfort with the policy couldn't be clearer, as was Jacinda Ardern's, David Cunliffe's and David Shearer's in previous iterations of Labour. It's a tortured political manoeuvre for Robertson, who clearly…

Get your teeth into the big announcements on climate change, cellphones and teeth. Caucus debates the BlackRock deal, China, free dentalcare affordability and teachers as the "phone police" Election 2023 By Tim Watkin Drivers, start your engines. The campaign seemed to get into gear this week with the government making a number of announcements that looked to have at least one eye on the October election. Is this finally going to be a climate election? Chris Hipkins has now had a week or two in which his Cabinet is the same at the start as at the finish, so he was able to stand in front of a lot microphones talking about the things that he reckons matter to New Zealanders. Front and centre was the $2 billon BlackRock investment fund, to help New Zealand reach the goal of 100 percent renewable energy. He called it a "watershed" in New Zealand's transition away from fossil fuels. But then his predecessor, Jacinda Ardern, said climate change was New Zealand's was having her generation's "nuclear-free moment"…

The election is just two months away. 10 weeks. 72 days. Caucus returns looking at what's distinct about this campaign - no kingmaker, missed opportunities, weaker majors and stronger minor parties, Election 2023 By Tim Watkin The campaign proper is still weeks away, but the campaign in real terms is already in full swing. So Caucus is back. What marks out Election 2023 as different so far? The Caucus team - Julian Wilcox, Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Guyon Espiner - looks at the lack of a potential kingmaker and the rise of set left and right blocs. Locked blocs, you might say. The minor parties are looking strong, while the latest polls show both major parties struggling in the 30s. It looks something like the first MMP election back in 1996, when the minors had more strength and both major parties lacked dominant charismatic leaders. They discuss missed opportunities, flank parties and their tactics, plus the resignation of Revenue Minister David Parker, amidst Chris Hipkins' call to reject a wealth or…

The crew open their envelopes and reveal their picks, as they make sense of Labour's govern-alone victory, National's much-needed rebuild, the return of te Pati Maori and the Greens' delight in the face of powerlessness Election 2020 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Through the past three years, as grief and crises have hit New Zealand, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has reached out and hugged those who were struggling. In Election 2020, New Zealand hugged her right back, delivering a victory on such a scale it puts her in the box seat for the 2023 election before all the 2020 special votes have even been counted. In this week's final Caucus podcast, the team agrees the red tide has flowed, in large part as a nationwide thank you to Ardern and the Labour-led government's handling of Covid-19. Labour and the Greens won 57 percent of the vote, the biggest vote for the Left in New Zealand since Norman Kirk's 1972 Labour win, and arguably the highest ever, trumping the first Labour…

Two days out, we hear surprise calls on wealth taxes and obesity and the Caucus crew debate the seats to watch, highs and lows, winners and losers. And we put our picks in an envelope. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Whenever Sir Edmund Hillary was asked about whether he thought George Mallory might have beat him to the top of Mt Everest in the 1920s, he would point out that part of being a successful mountaineer was making it back down. Sports people are quick to tell you it doesn't matter if you lead for 79 minutes if you're behind when the final whistle blows. The National Party seems to have missed that memo, however. After the first half of the campaign went better than they expected, the wheels have started to fall off. In the past two weeks, Judith Collins has turned into something of a snowball, crashing down the mountain of this campaign. That's commentary on National's unravelling campaign strategy, not on the National leader's weight. Because who would be mad enough to…

The New Zealand First Foundation in court, Judith Collins pays a price on Ponsonby Rd, Jacinda Ardern finds some form & a chance for Te Pati Maori. Election 2020 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here National's not having the week Judith Collins would have prayed for. After a couple of strong debate performances and some solid policy releases, some National MPs were starting to dare to hope that there might be a hint of a shadow of an outside chance for some kind of upset this election. Labour leader Jacinda Ardern was looking flat and two polls shifted things just a smidge to the centre-right. Then Denise Lee sent an email and Collins went for a walk. As voters have started advance voting in large numbers, they have been reminded that National has been a party divided this past term and a couple of debates don't heal all wounds. In Caucus this week, the consensus was that National at the worst possible time has reminded voters there are real questions about its readiness to govern. And…

Caucus rates a fired-up leaders' debate as Collins looks to bring voters 'home', while Winston Peters rages as he's 'exonerated'. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here You could almost see the basket in Judith Collins' arm during last night's Newshub Leaders' Debate, as she went merrily about her business picking fruit from the voter tree. Praise farmers and reassure them she won't "beggar" them for a photo op? One apple plucked from the National tree. Tough on law and order? One plucked from the New Zealand First tree. Mention her Christianity and belief in miracles? Pluck from the New Conservatives. Promise to get rid of the gun register? Pluck from ACT. Pluck, pluck, pluck. Amidst the hurly-burley of an energetic and fast-paced debate Collins was - to use a phrase popular under the previous National government - very targeted in her approach. The debate for her was a vote harvesting exercise and she managed it with aplomb. She also continued her efforts to introduce herself to voters,…

With eight days, 18 hours, two minutes and 10 seconds until voting starts, party leaders are calling up hit-jobs as they scrap for their political lives. Plus, the debate debacles, ACT's rise and National's steady run of own goals. By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here As the clock ticks down on this year's election campaign, the guns are coming out. I know, the usual politics cliche is that the gloves are coming off, but in this otherwise subdued campaign we're talking about more than mere body blows. Parties and their leaders are fighting for their political lives. Election 2020 has felt like a phony war, a bout of shadow boxing as politicians go through the motions, always with half an eye on Covid-19 and the virus sweeping the world. But the election at the end of it all is entirely real and deadly serious, especially for New Zealand First, the Greens and most other minor parties. The language is escalating. In a typical MMP election, parties are conscious of potential coalition…

Welcome to the recession, with giant debt, spending and unemployment that make previous campaigns look like Lilliput. How are New Zealand First are trying to recover & does Labour really want to govern alone? Election 2020 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here After a week of heavy policy releases where the major parties have clung to the political centre like a limpet to a life raft, we've been reminded - as if we needed it - why we have a life raft in the first place. It's official: Welcome to Recession Day. New Zealand's economy shrunk by 12.2 percent in the June quarter, the second quarter of negative growth in a row. Yesterday, Treasury laid out its pre-election fiscal update (PREFU), offering its non-partisan predictions for the next four years. As Kiwibank Chief Economist Jarrod Kerr says, "We've never seen anything like this. It was traumatic." Or as Guyon Espiner says on today's Caucus podcast, "Pakaru mai te hāunga te āhuatanga o te ōhanga". The economy is stuffed. An estimated…

Labour's tax policy is tentative, but is it also 'right for right now'? And is it negotiable? Judith Collins' policy releases point to less Crusher, more Kinder. Plus, how to mess up TV debates and the Matariki mood. By Tim Watkin It was one of the big unanswered questions every political junkie was waiting for. No, not National's Infrastructure Bank. Definitely not a new public holiday. Though we'll come to those. It was Labour's tax policy. How brave would it be? Would Labour dare to promise transformation or would it play it safer? We got the answer yesterday - a new top tax rate of 39 percent for those earning over $180,000. A promise to try a bit harder on taxing multi-nationals. And that was it. As Guyon Espiner says in today's Caucus podcast, if 'tax is love' then this was a peck on the cheek. An elbow bump at best. Is this the tax policy Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson dreamed of unveiling through their long years in Opposition? By no means. They believe in a Capital Gains Tax. They would…

Greens leader James Shaw has been under the cosh for his Green School decision, but what's going on behind the scenes and will it cost votes? Social media rears it's sulky head, vaccination lies and debate over 'the single source of truth'. Plus, is Winston Peters in cabinet or not? By Tim Watkin It's a rule of the playground, probably even at a Green School. Naughty kids can get away with things good kids can't because, well, people don't expect anything else. They can smoke behind the bike-sheds and just get a glare and a warning. But if the school prefect is caught doing the same thing, there's hell to pay. Expectations and reputations matter, at school and in politics. As James Shaw is being reminded this week. In this scenario, laid out by Guyon Espiner on today's Caucus election podcast, the ever-suited Shaw is the prefect. The good kid who never makes a fuss and sets an example. That's long been key to the Green Party brand - that they don't get down and dirty like those other kids. Kids like, well,…

As Auckland struggles through a "tricky" extended lockdown, who are the political winners & losers? We debate covid fatigue, who's won from the wage subsidies (hint: not women) and two up-for-grabs electorates - Ōhāriu and Whanganui. By Tim Watkin It's been a tricky week for the country, especially the third of all New Zealanders living under lockdown level 3 in Auckland. And it's turned politics on its head. National and ACT trying to outspend Labour. The left-leaning government being criticised for not doing enough for women and its poorest citizens. Listen hard enough and you might even have heard that rarest of things, sympathy for Aucklanders from those who live south of the Bombays. In Caucus this week, the team aren't convinced Aucklanders deserve too much credit, given the traffic on the road, the minimal mask use and stories of people leaving their neighbourhoods to go hither and yon. The mood in Auckland this week has felt more like despair than resilience, more clinging on than rallying together.…

Parties try to look tough as border policies are rolled out, Labour fails its testing test and what are the implications of delaying the election? By Tim Watkin These are testing times for New Zealanders, as Auckland spends two weeks at level three. But news over the past week that the testing at our borders has fallen far short of what the government promised has put Labour on the back foot and opened the door to its opponents. National and New Zealand First have stepped up with border protection policies that seek to out-tough each other. While Winston Peters said he'd "take every step" to improve our management of Covid-19, Judith Collins played to her "crusher" reputation insisting, "tough times need tough measures". Both parties are looking to capitalise on Labour's growing reputation for porousness - from people escaping from isolation facilities to a failure to test all workers at the border. While Labour is the face of mismanagement - and it's noticeable the party is trying to keep Jacinda Ardern's…

What impact will the return of Covid in the community have on Election 2020? Plus Gerry Brownlee's conspiracies, Labour's Ardern-astic launch, and Merv & Mellow in Auckland Central. Election 2020 By Tim Watkin Campaigns suspended just as they began. Election day in doubt. And - following the 'words beginning with C' theme from last week's Caucus podcast - heated debate over conspiracies and constitutional conventions as Covid returns to the community. This week in politics has been a disaster for Election 2020; you might even call it a cluster%$&!. The announcement Tuesday evening of four new cases of Covid-19 in the community stopped the election campaign in its tracks. With advance voting due to start in 23 days, the prime minister now faces a tough decision. Delay or stay the course towards September 19? Given parliament wasn't dissolved this week, Jacinda Ardern retains the discretion to change the election day at will. But practically the Electoral Commission will need time to adapt and in the interests…

Caucus returns for Election 2020 talking about the state of the parties, Covid debt and problems with our political culture. By Tim Watkin Campaigns. Culture. Character. And perhaps most of all, Covid-19. As the House rises today and politicians hit the road to pitch their woo to voters, those issues will be front of mind for the candidates. They were also where the new season of politics podcast Caucus began today. This year RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter, political commentator and strategic advisor, Scott Campbell. Labour heads into campaign season with a huge lead in recent polls, which have the party 20-25 points ahead of National, and widely regarded as a safe pair of hands amidst a global crisis. A party looking to take a transformative path couldn't hope for a bigger or better opportunity; the only time Labour has ever won more than 50 percent of the vote was in 1938, when (like today) a popular Prime Minister was looking for a second term…

The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing... Caucus is coming back. Presented by Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Scott Campbell. The election's getting close and that can only mean one thing... Caucus is back. And this election RNZ journalists Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin are joined by former Gallery reporter turned strategic consultant Scott Campbell. Each Thursday the crew will chew over the big events of Election 2020, debate what it all means and try to make sense of the politics and policy. Go to this episode on rnz.co.nz for more details

In our 13th Caucus, it's negotiation time. So we look at Winston Peters' post-election posturing, 'constitutional conventions' and what New Zealand First needs from the next three years. Plus, we unpack the election results and what they mean for the parties. Election 2017 By Tim Watkin That Winston, he's such an old curmudgeon. A funny old uncle. A bit cheeky, but good for a laugh. That's how most New Zealanders view the New Zealand First leader, who former Prime Minister Jenny Shipley has described as "an 85 percent outstanding leader". In past episodes of Caucus we've argued that he can put the curmudgeonly personna aside when needed because he takes his constitutional role seriously. Cometh the hour, cometh the statesman. Yet yesterday has given us pause to doubt. Now, with the serious responsibility of government in his hands, he is throwing his toys. Caucus this week makes the case - not for the first time - for taking Winston Peters seriously and holding him to account as we would other party leaders.…

We make the big calls two days from E-Day. What are the scenarios that could lead to forming a government, a last look at the polls & debates, & our highs and lows from the campaign Election 2017 By Tim Watkin So it all comes down to this: It's close. While the lack of polls this election means it's hard to pick trends, it looks clear that Labour's Adern-tastic August has hit a September slump. Momentum has stalled. It may have even swung behind National, but on the available data it's impossible to say. Thus, all we can say is that it's close. That doesn't stop RNZ's own Caucus from taking a hard look at the wide range of scenarios that could yet turn into a government next week. We're no shirkers. and while I say that somewhat flippantly, it actually matters. As we've discussed on previous podcasts, to avoid a disillusioned electorate in a few days time, it's important for the public to understand how their votes might turn into a government. The possible outcomes are many. Looking at the polls as we know…

Lisa Owen, Tim Watkin and Guyon Espiner discuss the fallout from Labour's sudden tax u-turn, the volatility of polls and the cost and bottom-lines of Winston Peters. By Tim Watkin Politicians and u-turns go together like taxi divers and, well, u-turns. But a u-turn 10 days out from election day? On tax? It's a big call Labour has made today on a policy that needn't have been controversial in the first place. Grant Robertson's announcement this morning that Labour will not introduce any recommendations made by its Tax Working Group until after the 2020 election effectively reinstates the party's policy of just a month ago, before Jacinda Ardern took over the leadership and made her "captain's call" to shake things up on tax. And that's top of the agenda on today's Caucus podcast. The new promise is intended to take the heat out of National's attacks on the party and its claims - always in the grey lands between fact and fiction - that Labour was planning a suite of new taxes should it lead the next…

The panel discuss why both National and Labour seem to be having trouble with their sums, and why it's time to ask the minor parties what they really want. By Tim Watkin Financial credibility and leadership. That's what this week's Caucus boils down to, with both National and Labour struggling with the former, but showing a fair bit of the latter. Then there are the minor parties and what coalition combos could look like. But more of that later. National's incorrect claims that Labour has an "$11.7 billion hole" in its fiscal plan - and its insistence it is right in the face of universal disagreement - has dominated the week, raising the question whether National's reputation for sound economic stewardship has taken a hit. In the finance debate on today's Morning Report, Steven Joyce couldn't name one New Zealander who backed his claims; and as Guyon points out, he wasn't even asking for an economist, it was any New Zealander at all. Joyce's tactics mimic the National Party playbook from 2011 and 2014, when…

It's all about Winston - his Super spin, bottom lines and how he chooses coalition partners. But it's also about the scrap for the family vote and what it's really like behind the scenes at a leaders debate By Tim Watkin It's been Winston week, so far. That changes tonight, with the first head-to-head major party leaders debate on TVNZ between Bill English and Jacinda Ardern. But thus far the NZ First leader and his super-charged super payments have been the focus of discussion. Winston Peters has adeptly turned the story into one about who leaked the information to journalists. That raises privacy concerns that deserve to be addressed and has seen Peters grab the opportunity to ask how his personal information made it into the public domain. At first, he was sure IRD officials were the source of the leak. Next, he was certain it was someone in or around National. Investigations are under way and even Prime Minister Bill English has worried out loud about officials' use of private information. As Guyon…

Lisa, Tim and Guyon discuss how PREFU has changed the campaign, how Dunne's departure may signal a changing of the generations, and how the minor parties want to change the conversation. By Tim Watkin Put the clubs down and back away. That's what Labour and National tried to do after the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update (PREFU) was released yesterday. The first moves by both major parties were defensive. Labour ruled out an increase to the top tax rate, trying to diminish National's attack line that they are the party of taxes, taxes and more taxes. At the same time, National took tax cuts off the table, undermining Labour's attack line that Joyce & Co are willing to starve essential public services, such as health and education. And yet. And yet. Labour's standing by its decision to set up a tax working group should it become government and take advice from it on how to reform the tax system. Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson claim the current tax system isn't fair, but won't openly campaign on what…

National starts its fight back as Bill English goes to boot camp, Jacinda Ardern negotiates her first international stoush and Grant Robertson opens the door to a Capital Gains Tax. By Tim Watkin It's been an in-between week in New Zealand politics - between the fall of both Andrew Little and Metiria Turei and before the final pre-election fiscal update and the rise of the 'big policies'. But there's still been plenty going on. And a bit of argy-bargy. Next Wednesday, what's known as the PREFU is released by Treasury. That's the Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update, to give it its proper name. Labour won't reveal its big policy - widely picked to involve education - until it knows the state of the nation's books. While they'll have it all ready to go, they need to be seen to be waiting so as to look like responsible managers of the economy. Equally, National has kept its campaign launch back until 27 August - four days after the PREFU - when we expect to see its big policy bid for a fourth term. But has…

In this week's Caucus, the team discuss the Green Party strategy that may have (inadvertently) saved Labour. Was it OK to put Metiria Turei under such scrutiny? What next for the Greens? Election 2017 By Tim Watkin Three weeks ago, Metiria Turei rolled the dice with nothing less at stake than all the gains the Greens had made in recent elections - from a 5-6 percent party to a 10-12 percent party. Frustration at their inability to get into government and Labour's stumbling performance over the last three years saw the Greens opt for the high-risk high-reward strategy. But was it a naive strategy, and how well was it implemented? Green Party co-leader Metiria Turei resigned as co-leader after weeks of pressure over her admission of lying to Work and Income in the 1990s so her benefit would not be cut. First, Turei attacked Winston Peters as racist. Then, in the second act on 16 July, she revealed that she had lied to Work and Income about her living circumstances when she was a solo mum in the 1990s. She…

It's all about Jacinda. Labour's late leadership change has turned Election 17 on its head. But can Labour seize the moment and how will other parties respond? Election 2017 By Tim Watkin What had been looking like a campaign that was being driven by the minor parties, has now pivoted back to focus on the two majors. Jacinda Ardern has created a spurt of - to use her words - "relentless positivity" that has put the phone back on the hook for Labour. Or as Guyon Espiner puts it, has brought them back into coverage. Voters who had given up on Labour, because they didn't have the look of government and success about them, will give them another look. While the fundamental policy platform won't change - and Labour's weaknesses aren't suddenly magicked away - they will be seeing the party through a new lens. As Lisa Owen points out, Andrew Little had kept Labour's poll numbers around 30 percent until quite recently, but the party's dive in fortunes since the interns fiasco and Metiria Turei's confession that she…

Guyon Espiner, Lisa Owen and Tim Watkin discuss Bill English's Epsom and Ohariu urges, whether the Greens are losing control, the link between New Zealand First's vote and immigration, plus the Perry incomes report. Election 2017 By Tim Watkin This time there's no cup of tea and little intrigue. Bill English has simply and directly told National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to United Future in Ohariu and to ACT in Epsom. Even though he seemed to almost forget the name of Peter Dunne's party, the message was clear. More of the same, please. National is running this 'pre-campaign' campaign very quietly, letting the minor parties make the running and headlines, trying to look above it all and, well, governmental. Its goal will be to minimise its almost inevitable loss of vote at the end of a third term and to defy the nine year rule (that says it's almost impossible for New Zealand governments to win a fourth term) by making as little fuss as possible. One of the potential road bumps along…

Labour's fiscals, Winston's growing spending tab, who wants the Māori seats, what a Green Party voter looks like and whether it's OK for Metiria Turei to have deceived WINZ (oh, and the Greens' actual family policy!). Election 2017 By Tim Watkin Labour and National are doubling down on the budgetary hands they have dealt themselves after the release of Labour's fiscal plan this week. The gap between the two isn't huge - both are promising to spend some of the surplus on families while committing to debt levels that are low by international standards. But you wouldn't know it from the rhetoric. If you listened to Labour, you would believe the heartless National government is letting social services rot. Its fiscals this week promised $8 billion more in health, $4 billion more in education and $5 billion more in its family package, over four years. By "more", they mean on top of National's promised spending in Budget 2017. Its rationale? That services have been ground down and need to be refreshed. National…

We talk about Barry Coates being "nuanced when he should have been unequivocal" on coalition agreements, as well as the battle over National and Labour's families packages. Election 2017 By Tim Watkin In today's episode, Green MP Barry Coates' ill-considered suggestion that the Greens might prefer a second election to a Labour-New Zealand First coalition, which could keep his party on the sidelines, pushed coalition politics to the top of the hosts' agenda. Coates is the Greens' newest MP, having entered Parliament on the list in October last year when Kevin Hague resigned. He told Newshub this week that Labour and New Zealand First could not take Green Party support for granted if they tried to keep them out of any coalition talks. Picking up on comments by Greens co-leader Metiria Turei at the weekend, he said a Labour-New Zealand First government would be unacceptable to the Greens, then went even further, suggesting that if numbers allowed, they could force another election. Greens co-leader James Shaw…

The team discuss who's making nice with whom, the return of Shane Jones, a Greens apology, Todd Barclay implications and Māori Party-Labour fisticuffs. Election 2017 By Tim Watkin Watch the video version of the episode here Why is New Zealand First assumed to be the king maker? Is everyone a bit over-excited about the second coming of Shane Jones? And can the party mobilise the regions to push their vote ahead of the Greens? On the weekend, Jones made soothing noises towards the Greens, at odds with what NZ First leader Winston Peters typically says about them. Is that significant? The Greens have said publicly they can work with New Zealand First - and it's expected they will say more at their election year conference this coming weekend - but could Winston do a deal that involves them? Shane Jones announcing he is standing for New Zealand First in Whangarei. This week on Morning Report, Labour Party leader Andrew Little reached out to Jones, calling him "a friend of Labour". But there are questions as to…