Free to Disagree

The Treasury's pre-election update showed spending up, revenue down and debt rising after three years of a government elected on restraint. Oliver and Damien ask who ends up as finance minister after 7 November, and whether any of them will confront superannuation and interest heading for $44 billion by 2031. They then turn to John Key, who has warned the National Party conference against tactical voting, with a National overhang now a real prospect. They finish the episode on National and Labour's combined share falling to 56 per cent, a historic low, which Oliver's new Quadrant essay traces to the big parties losing their members, their loyalty and their links to the communities they once represented.

Nicky Hager's new book on the Taxpayers' Union has had several of its claims publicly contradicted within days of publication. Oliver and Damien discuss the fallout and what it has already cost the organisation. Next, 51 prominent New Zealanders signed an open letter to every party leader about property rights and freedom of contract, and Oliver explains why several chief executives who agreed with every word would not put their names to it. And finally, they turn to the economics behind the proposed Foodstuffs breakup, and the report the government says backs its case.

National has announced it would split Foodstuffs into separate Pak'nSave and New World chains, in the name of more competition. Oliver and Damien ask whether breaking up a family-owned cooperative is likely to persuade an Aldi or a Lidl to come here, or convince them to stay away for good. Next, Oliver watched every party leader speak at a recent conference, and came away wondering why the campaign is being fought on such small ground. And finally, plans to overhaul the 2028 census have fallen apart after Labour withdrew support, and they ask whether the country still needs one.

The Greens want to buy 120 supermarkets and a couple of distribution centres for $2.8 billion, which one analysis puts at a saving of $68 a household a year. Oliver and Damien ask what nationalisation would actually deliver, and why New Zealand First is proposing something similar for the BNZ. Next, the AfD took nearly 44 per cent in Saxony-Anhalt, and Oliver explains what is driving German voters away from the political centre. And finally, a Greens MP called English a bastard language in Parliament, and Damien explains why that may be closer to a compliment.

Paul Henry is standing for ACT and Taine Randell for New Zealand First. Oliver and Damien ask whether celebrity candidates actually win votes, and why New Zealand tends to produce the reverse, politicians who become famous through politics. They then unpack deadweight loss and why higher taxes change behaviour in ways revenue forecasts often ignore. And finally, they turn to MBIE's failed biometric project and whether New Zealand has created a permanent bureaucratic class too insulated from ministers and too weakly accountable when things go wrong.

National has introduced a bill banning under 16s from social media, and both coalition partners have refused to back it. Oliver and Damien ask whether such a ban could work, and whether the state should be involved at all. Next, Oliver reports back from a capital gains tax event at a centre-left think tank, where nobody in the room liked Labour's version of the tax. And finally, Iceland votes on Saturday on whether to resume talks about joining the European Union, and they get to the Cod Wars, a banking collapse and what a country of 400,000 people manages to do.

Te Pāti Māori have told supporters to give them their electorate vote and send their party vote elsewhere. Oliver and Damien ask what happens if National voters start doing the same, and whether MMP survives it. Next, they discuss coalitions and deficits, and Oliver's argument that every additional party in a coalition makes a balanced budget harder. And finally, Donald Trump scaled back a military exercise with South Korea on Truth Social, and they ask what it means for America's allies in the Pacific.

One day after Christopher Luxon survived a confidence vote, Oliver and Damien ask whether he has finally shown the country who he really is. Next, they discuss Chris Penk's departure from politics and what it costs National. And finally, overseas, a drone carrying 800 grams of Semtex was found beside a Ukrainian cargo plane at Leipzig Airport, and they ask why no Western government will say who put it there.

Free to Disagree is a new weekly podcast produced by The New Zealand Initaitive. Join Oliver Hartwich and Damien Grant as they talk about New Zealand politics and economics. Two friends on broadly the same side of politics who find plenty to disagree about anyway. Each week they discuss three big issues, leading up to the election. In this episode they start with the economy, where unemployment is at its highest since 2015 and inflation is running hot, so what should the Reserve Bank do? They turn to TOP, polling at 8 per cent when almost nobody has read its policies, and ask whether voters are just going on vibes. And with 7 November closing in, they debate whether the coalition is really coming back. Recorded on Thursday 6 August 2026.